Chris Thompson
DB, Nicholls St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #150 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 12 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2005 (~38%). Last NFL season: 2005.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #114 overall (#16 at his position), but he lasted until pick #150: teams let him slide 36 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nicholls St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 189 lbs: faster than 42% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 12 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2005 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 189 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.14 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #114 overall (#16 DB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 147 | Claude Harriott | redraft #230 |
| 148 | Craig Krenzel | redraft #191 |
| 149 | Maurice Mann | redraft #223 |
| 151 | Mark Wilson | redraft #219 |
| 152 | Jeff Shoate | redraft #201 |
| 153 | Roderick Green | redraft #135 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.