Matt Jones
RB, Florida · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #95 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #135 (#12 at his position); he went #95, 40 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 25 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2017 (~52%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 25% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 25 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Rushing | 248 att, 964 yds, 6 TD |
| Receiving | 27 rec, 377 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #135 overall (#12 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 92 | Jeff Heuerman | redraft #143 |
| 93 | Henry Anderson | redraft #75 |
| 94 | Ty Montgomery | redraft #87 |
| 96 | Xavier Cooper | redraft #160 |
| 97 | Geneo Grissom | redraft #163 |
| 98 | Steven Nelson | redraft #45 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.