Ty Montgomery
WR, Stanford · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #94 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #107 (#16 at his position), close to where he went (#94).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 20% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 92 of ~147 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2023 (~63%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 92 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| Rushing | 263 att, 1,187 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 147 rec, 1,159 yds, 4 TD |
| Defense | 15 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55 s |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #107 overall (#16 WR) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 91 | Chaz Green | redraft #131 |
| 92 | Jeff Heuerman | redraft #143 |
| 93 | Henry Anderson | redraft #75 |
| 95 | Matt Jones | redraft #116 |
| 96 | Xavier Cooper | redraft #160 |
| 97 | Geneo Grissom | redraft #163 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.