Steven Nelson
CB, Oregon St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #98 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 130 of ~147 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2023 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #106 (#16 at his position), close to where he went (#98). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 197 lbs: faster than 48% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 130 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 36 |
| Defense | 374 tackles, 1 sacks, 13 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 197 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #106 overall (#16 CB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 95 | Matt Jones | redraft #116 |
| 96 | Xavier Cooper | redraft #160 |
| 97 | Geneo Grissom | redraft #163 |
| 99 | Paul Dawson | redraft #187 |
| 100 | Angelo Blackson | redraft #69 |
| 101 | Trey Flowers | redraft #47 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.