Marqise Lee
WR, USC · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #39 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #24 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#39).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 192 lbs: faster than 29% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 59 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2019 (~61%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 59 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| Passing | 1/2, 20 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 16 att, 100 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 174 rec, 2,184 yds, 8 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 192 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| Shuttle | 4.01 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #24 overall (#5 WR) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 36 | Derek Carr | redraft #4 |
| 37 | Ra'Shede Hageman | redraft #123 |
| 38 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | redraft #121 |
| 40 | Kyle Van Noy | redraft #15 |
| 41 | Lamarcus Joyner | redraft #63 |
| 42 | Jordan Matthews | redraft #72 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.