Derek Carr
QB, Fresno St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #36 (OAK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 169 of ~180 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2024 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #95 (#7 at his position); he went #36, 59 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at 214 lbs: faster than 74% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 169 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 93 |
| Passing | 3765/5785, 41,245 yds, 257 TD, 112 INT |
| Rushing | 327 att, 956 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -9 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 214 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69 s |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.4" / 9.1" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #95 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 33 | Xavier Su'a-Filo | redraft #69 |
| 34 | DeMarcus Lawrence | redraft #8 |
| 35 | Joel Bitonio | redraft #10 |
| 37 | Ra'Shede Hageman | redraft #123 |
| 38 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | redraft #121 |
| 39 | Marqise Lee | redraft #88 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.