Malik Willis
QB, Liberty · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #86 (TEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 21 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~31%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 overall (#1 at his position), but he lasted until pick #86: teams let him slide 65 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Liberty: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 27 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 8.7 |
| Passing | 178/285, 2,171 yds, 8 TD, 7 INT |
| Rushing | 101 att, 591 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 219 lbs |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 83 | Nakobe Dean | redraft #74 |
| 84 | DeMarvin Leal | redraft #167 |
| 85 | Marcus Jones | redraft #23 |
| 87 | Cameron Thomas | redraft #148 |
| 88 | Jalen Tolbert | redraft #120 |
| 89 | Terrel Bernard | redraft #28 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.