Jalen Tolbert
WR, South Alabama · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #88 (DAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #74 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#88).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Alabama: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 194 lbs: faster than 41% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 55 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~81%). Plus 3 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 58 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 9.3 |
| Receiving | 92 rec, 1,115 yds, 10 TD |
| Defense | 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 194 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.63" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #74 overall (#12 WR) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 85 | Marcus Jones | redraft #23 |
| 86 | Malik Willis | redraft #126 |
| 87 | Cameron Thomas | redraft #148 |
| 89 | Terrel Bernard | redraft #28 |
| 90 | Dylan Parham | redraft #51 |
| 91 | Rachaad White | redraft #29 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.