Mack Hollins
WR, North Carolina · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #118 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 127 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~85%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #100 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#118). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 25% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 131 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 22.2 |
| Passing | 1/1, 4 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 5 att, 44 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 223 rec, 2,828 yds, 17 TD |
| Defense | 20 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #100 overall (#10 WR) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 115 | Dorian Johnson | redraft #234 |
| 116 | Carl Lawson | redraft #93 |
| 117 | Josh Reynolds | redraft #74 |
| 119 | Tarik Cohen | redraft #88 |
| 120 | Ben Gedeon | redraft #109 |
| 121 | Joe Williams | redraft #235 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.