Carl Lawson
OLB, Auburn · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #116 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #101 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#116). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 261 lbs: faster than 42% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 90 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~60%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 90 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 20 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 20.0 |
| Defense | 76 tackles, 32 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 261 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Bench press | 35 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.46 s |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #101 overall (#12 OLB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 113 | Rayshawn Jenkins | redraft #48 |
| 114 | Samaje Perine | redraft #68 |
| 115 | Dorian Johnson | redraft #234 |
| 117 | Josh Reynolds | redraft #74 |
| 118 | Mack Hollins | redraft #80 |
| 119 | Tarik Cohen | redraft #88 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.