Joe Williams
RB, Utah · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #121 (SFO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #184 (#17 at his position); he went #121, 63 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 86% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 7.19 s |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #184 overall (#17 RB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 118 | Mack Hollins | redraft #80 |
| 119 | Tarik Cohen | redraft #88 |
| 120 | Ben Gedeon | redraft #109 |
| 122 | Nico Siragusa | redraft #236 |
| 123 | Montae Nicholson | redraft #122 |
| 124 | Jalen Reeves-Maybin | redraft #100 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.