Logan Thomas
QB, Virginia Tech · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #120 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #126 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#120). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 248 lbs: faster than 83% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 94 of ~163 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2023 (~58%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 94 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Passing | 3/11, 124 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 4 att, 7 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 219 rec, 2,002 yds, 16 TD |
| Defense | 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 248 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.05 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.4" / 10.7" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #126 overall (#10 QB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 117 | Ka'Deem Carey | redraft #164 |
| 118 | Martavis Bryant | redraft #82 |
| 119 | Anthony Hitchens | redraft #33 |
| 121 | Carl Bradford | redraft #215 |
| 122 | Marqueston Huff | redraft #157 |
| 123 | Kevin Norwood | redraft #200 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.