Kris Wilson
TE, Pittsburgh · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #61 (KAN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 (#5 at his position); he went #61, 36 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 248 lbs: faster than 79% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 97 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2011 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 97 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Rushing | 4 att, 13 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 52 rec, 446 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 16 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 248 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.1 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#5 TE) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 58 | Shawntae Spencer | redraft #70 |
| 59 | Sean Jones | redraft #61 |
| 60 | Courtney Watson | redraft #128 |
| 62 | Keary Colbert | redraft #95 |
| 63 | Marquise Hill | redraft #187 |
| 64 | Darnell Dockett | redraft #11 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.