Kenneth Dixon
RB, Louisiana Tech · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #134 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 18 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2018 (~38%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #79 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #134: teams let him slide 55 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisiana Tech: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 41% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 18 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 5.0 |
| Rushing | 148 att, 715 yds, 4 TD |
| Receiving | 36 rec, 213 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.13" / 8.38" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #79 overall (#3 RB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 131 | Blake Martinez | redraft #47 |
| 132 | Willie Henry | redraft #166 |
| 133 | Rashard Robinson | redraft #129 |
| 135 | Dak Prescott | redraft #2 |
| 136 | Devontae Booker | redraft #89 |
| 137 | Dean Lowry | redraft #45 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.