Dean Lowry
DE, Northwestern · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #137 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 132 of ~148 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2024 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #281 (#25 at his position); he went #137, 144 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northwestern: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.87 40-yard dash at 296 lbs: faster than 56% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 132 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 38 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 38.0 |
| Defense | 144 tackles, 16.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 296 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.87 s |
| Bench press | 30 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.26 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.5" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #281 overall (#25 DE) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 134 | Kenneth Dixon | redraft #157 |
| 135 | Dak Prescott | redraft #2 |
| 136 | Devontae Booker | redraft #89 |
| 138 | Seth Devalve | redraft #145 |
| 139 | Cardale Jones | redraft #232 |
| 140 | Tajae Sharpe | redraft #110 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.