Dak Prescott
QB, Mississippi St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #135 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #230 (#12 at his position); he went #135, 95 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 226 lbs: faster than 53% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 139 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 145 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 104 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 106.7 |
| Passing | 3347/5005, 37,628 yds, 253 TD, 97 INT |
| Rushing | 487 att, 2,188 yds, 31 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 11 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 226 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 7.11 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.63" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #230 overall (#12 QB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 132 | Willie Henry | redraft #166 |
| 133 | Rashard Robinson | redraft #129 |
| 134 | Kenneth Dixon | redraft #157 |
| 136 | Devontae Booker | redraft #89 |
| 137 | Dean Lowry | redraft #45 |
| 138 | Seth Devalve | redraft #145 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.