Kary Vincent Jr.
CB, LSU · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #237 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 2 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2021 (~12%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #155 overall (#24 at his position), but he lasted until pick #237: teams let him slide 82 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at 185 lbs: faster than 92% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 2 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 185 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.36 s |
| Bench press | 8 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| Arm / hand | 30.25" / 8.88" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #155 overall (#24 CB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 234 | Patrick Johnson | redraft #134 |
| 235 | Wyatt Hubert | redraft #255 |
| 236 | Jack Anderson | redraft #192 |
| 238 | Matt Farniok | redraft #182 |
| 239 | Jonathon Cooper | redraft #27 |
| 240 | William Bradley-King | redraft #232 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.