Patrick Johnson
DE, Tulane · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #234 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #253 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#234). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tulane: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at 240 lbs: faster than 95% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 69 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~81%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 76 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.5 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.5 |
| Defense | 31 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 240 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.41 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.25" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #253 overall (#11 DE) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 231 | Larnel Coleman | redraft #250 |
| 232 | Phil Hoskins | redraft #211 |
| 233 | Jake Funk | redraft #214 |
| 235 | Wyatt Hubert | redraft #255 |
| 236 | Jack Anderson | redraft #192 |
| 237 | Kary Vincent Jr. | redraft #243 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.