Junior Hemingway
WR, Michigan · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #238 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #249 (#37 at his position), close to where he went (#238).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 225 lbs: faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 31 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2014 (~65%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 31 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Receiving | 25 rec, 233 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 12 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 225 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 6.59 s |
| Shuttle | 3.98 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #249 overall (#37 WR) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 235 | Jeremy Ebert | redraft #218 |
| 236 | DeAngelo Tyson | redraft #142 |
| 237 | Cam Johnson | redraft #155 |
| 239 | Markus Kuhn | redraft #141 |
| 240 | David Paulson | redraft #186 |
| 241 | Andrew Datko | redraft #250 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.