David Paulson
TE, Oregon · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #240 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2013 (~100%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 246 lbs: faster than 29% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 32 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Receiving | 13 rec, 153 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 246 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.18 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.6" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 237 | Cam Johnson | redraft #155 |
| 238 | Junior Hemingway | redraft #174 |
| 239 | Markus Kuhn | redraft #141 |
| 241 | Andrew Datko | redraft #250 |
| 242 | Antonio Allen | redraft #124 |
| 243 | B.J. Coleman | redraft #251 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.