Cam Johnson
DE, Virginia · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #237 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #237: teams let him slide 140 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 268 lbs: faster than 76% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 28 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2016 (~35%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 28 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Defense | 26 tackles, 3 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 268 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 7.2 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.4" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#12 DE) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 234 | Marcel Jones | redraft #249 |
| 235 | Jeremy Ebert | redraft #218 |
| 236 | DeAngelo Tyson | redraft #142 |
| 238 | Junior Hemingway | redraft #174 |
| 239 | Markus Kuhn | redraft #141 |
| 240 | David Paulson | redraft #186 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.