Jordan Shipley
WR, Texas · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #84 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 24 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2012 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#84).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 193 lbs: faster than 8% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 24 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Receiving | 79 rec, 858 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 193 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| Arm / hand | 30.4" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#11 WR) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 81 | Earl Mitchell | redraft #63 |
| 82 | Emmanuel Sanders | redraft #19 |
| 83 | Corey Peters | redraft #32 |
| 85 | Colt McCoy | redraft #90 |
| 86 | Daniel Te'o-Nesheim | redraft #112 |
| 87 | Eric Decker | redraft #34 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.