Colt McCoy
QB, Texas · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #85 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #44 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #85: teams let him slide 41 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 216 lbs: faster than 53% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 56 of ~210 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2022 (~27%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 56 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| Passing | 764/1220, 7,975 yds, 34 TD, 32 INT |
| Rushing | 175 att, 582 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 8 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 216 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #44 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 82 | Emmanuel Sanders | redraft #19 |
| 83 | Corey Peters | redraft #32 |
| 84 | Jordan Shipley | redraft #136 |
| 86 | Daniel Te'o-Nesheim | redraft #112 |
| 87 | Eric Decker | redraft #34 |
| 88 | Andre Roberts | redraft #71 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.