Eric Decker
WR, Minnesota · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #87 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 111 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2017 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #59 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#87). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Minnesota: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 22% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 111 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 45 |
| Passing | undefined/2, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1 att, 1 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 439 rec, 5,816 yds, 53 TD |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.1" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #59 overall (#6 WR) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 84 | Jordan Shipley | redraft #136 |
| 85 | Colt McCoy | redraft #90 |
| 86 | Daniel Te'o-Nesheim | redraft #112 |
| 88 | Andre Roberts | redraft #71 |
| 89 | Armanti Edwards | redraft #186 |
| 90 | Taylor Price | redraft #202 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.