John Jerry
T, Mississippi · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #61 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#73). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.15 40-yard dash at 328 lbs: faster than 66% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 132 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2019 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 132 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 40 |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 328 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.15 s |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 7.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.69 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 9.8" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #61 overall (#4 T) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 70 | Ed Dickson | redraft #95 |
| 71 | Morgan Burnett | redraft #52 |
| 72 | Alex Carrington | redraft #134 |
| 74 | D'Anthony Smith | redraft #198 |
| 75 | Major Wright | redraft #81 |
| 76 | Chad Jones | redraft #238 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.