D'Anthony Smith
DT, Louisiana Tech · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #74 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 12 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2015 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #100 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#74).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisiana Tech: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.01 40-yard dash at 304 lbs: faster than 33% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 12 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 304 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.01 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.3" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #100 overall (#14 DT) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 71 | Morgan Burnett | redraft #52 |
| 72 | Alex Carrington | redraft #134 |
| 73 | John Jerry | redraft #43 |
| 75 | Major Wright | redraft #81 |
| 76 | Chad Jones | redraft #238 |
| 77 | Damian Williams | redraft #115 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.