Jack Jones
DB, Arizona St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #121 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 58 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~85%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #192 (#23 at his position); he went #121, 71 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 171 lbs: faster than 38% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 65 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 15.6 |
| Defense | 158 tackles, 0 sacks, 8 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 171 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #192 overall (#23 DB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 118 | Akayleb Evans | redraft #125 |
| 119 | Jalyn Armour-Davis | redraft #160 |
| 120 | Brandon Smith | redraft #224 |
| 122 | Zamir White | redraft #157 |
| 123 | Isaiah Spiller | redraft #222 |
| 124 | Cade York | redraft #216 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.