Brandon Smith
LB, Penn St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #120 (CAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 14 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2023 (~41%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #124 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#120).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 250 lbs: faster than 88% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 14 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 250 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| Arm / hand | 34.13" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #124 overall (#10 LB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 117 | Micheal Clemons | redraft #94 |
| 118 | Akayleb Evans | redraft #125 |
| 119 | Jalyn Armour-Davis | redraft #160 |
| 121 | Jack Jones | redraft #81 |
| 122 | Zamir White | redraft #157 |
| 123 | Isaiah Spiller | redraft #222 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.