Isaiah Spiller
RB, Texas A&M · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #123 (LAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 15 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2023 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #89 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #123: teams let him slide 34 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas A&M: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 15 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Rushing | 55 att, 137 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 9 rec, 47 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 217 lbs |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| Arm / hand | 31.13" / 8.63" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #89 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 120 | Brandon Smith | redraft #224 |
| 121 | Jack Jones | redraft #81 |
| 122 | Zamir White | redraft #157 |
| 124 | Cade York | redraft #216 |
| 125 | Erik Ezukanma | redraft #250 |
| 126 | Neil Farrell | redraft #208 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.