Derrick Morgan
DE, Georgia Tech · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #16 (TEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #9 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.77 40-yard dash at 266 lbs: faster than 74% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 118 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2018 (~82%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 118 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 40 |
| Defense | 208 tackles, 44.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 266 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.77 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.12 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.4" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #9 overall (#1 DE) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 13 | Brandon Graham | redraft #23 |
| 14 | Earl Thomas | redraft #5 |
| 15 | Jason Pierre-Paul | redraft #8 |
| 17 | Mike Iupati | redraft #18 |
| 18 | Maurkice Pouncey | redraft #6 |
| 19 | Sean Weatherspoon | redraft #73 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.