Derrick Henry
RB, Alabama · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #45 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 152 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~92%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #52 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#45). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 247 lbs: faster than 48% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 159 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 85 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 86.8 |
| Passing | 7/10, 37 yds, 4 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 2792 att, 13,552 yds, 129 TD |
| Receiving | 198 rec, 1,865 yds, 6 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 247 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 130" |
| 3-cone | 7.2 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #52 overall (#2 RB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 42 | Kamalei Correa | redraft #121 |
| 43 | Austin Johnson | redraft #64 |
| 44 | Jihad Ward | redraft #73 |
| 46 | A'Shawn Robinson | redraft #43 |
| 47 | Michael Thomas | redraft #17 |
| 48 | Jason Spriggs | redraft #127 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.