Austin Johnson
NT, Penn St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #43 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 145 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~88%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #47 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#43).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.32 40-yard dash at 314 lbs: faster than 3% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
NT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 145 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 29 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 29.0 |
| Defense | 136 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 314 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.32 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 26" |
| Broad jump | 96" |
| 3-cone | 7.84 s |
| Shuttle | 4.75 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #47 overall (#9 NT) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 40 | Sterling Shepard | redraft #57 |
| 41 | Reggie Ragland | redraft #83 |
| 42 | Kamalei Correa | redraft #121 |
| 44 | Jihad Ward | redraft #73 |
| 45 | Derrick Henry | redraft #7 |
| 46 | A'Shawn Robinson | redraft #43 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.