Derek Pagel
DB, Iowa · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #140 (NYJ)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 19 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2004 (~59%). Last NFL season: 2004.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 208 lbs: faster than 18% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Defense | 13 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2004 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 208 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 6.87 s |
| Shuttle | 4.08 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 137 | Terrence Holt | redraft #92 |
| 138 | Robert Mathis | redraft #13 |
| 139 | Bobby Wade | redraft #83 |
| 141 | Kenny King | redraft #191 |
| 142 | Ryan Pontbriand | redraft #88 |
| 143 | Justin Gage | redraft #68 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.