Robert Mathis
DE, Alabama A&M · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #138 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 192 of ~224 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2016 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Alabama A&M: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 192 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 67 |
| Defense | 408 tackles, 123 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 135 | Solomon Bates | redraft #175 |
| 136 | Khalid Abdullah | redraft #189 |
| 137 | Terrence Holt | redraft #92 |
| 139 | Bobby Wade | redraft #83 |
| 140 | Derek Pagel | redraft #187 |
| 141 | Kenny King | redraft #191 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.