Justin Gage
WR, Missouri · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #143 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Missouri: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 57% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2010 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 100 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| Receiving | 201 rec, 2,958 yds, 16 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 140 | Derek Pagel | redraft #187 |
| 141 | Kenny King | redraft #191 |
| 142 | Ryan Pontbriand | redraft #88 |
| 144 | James Davis | redraft #109 |
| 145 | Kindal Moorehead | redraft #104 |
| 146 | Aubrayo Franklin | redraft #41 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.