D.J. Smith
LB, Appalachian St. · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #186 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #289 (#19 at his position); he went #186, 103 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Appalachian St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 239 lbs: faster than 30% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 24 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~38%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 24 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Defense | 62 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 239 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 104" |
| 3-cone | 7.35 s |
| Shuttle | 4.45 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #289 overall (#19 LB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 183 | Jordan Todman | redraft #145 |
| 184 | David Carter | redraft #151 |
| 185 | Greg Jones | redraft #169 |
| 187 | Allen Bradford | redraft #203 |
| 188 | Chris Rucker | redraft #181 |
| 189 | Mike Mohamed | redraft #162 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.