Allen Bradford
RB, USC · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #187 (TAM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #244 (#21 at his position); he went #187, 57 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 19 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2015 (~24%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 50% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 5 att, 13 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 9 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.09" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #244 overall (#21 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 184 | David Carter | redraft #151 |
| 185 | Greg Jones | redraft #169 |
| 186 | D.J. Smith | redraft #134 |
| 188 | Chris Rucker | redraft #181 |
| 189 | Mike Mohamed | redraft #162 |
| 190 | Colin Jones | redraft #101 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.