Jordan Todman
RB, Connecticut · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #183 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #128 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #183: teams let him slide 55 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Connecticut: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 203 lbs: faster than 87% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 74 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2017 (~66%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 74 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 124 att, 531 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 40 rec, 314 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 20 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 203 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 7.24 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #128 overall (#12 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 180 | Tyrod Taylor | redraft #28 |
| 181 | Richard Gordon | redraft #207 |
| 182 | Ronald Johnson | redraft #237 |
| 184 | David Carter | redraft #151 |
| 185 | Greg Jones | redraft #169 |
| 186 | D.J. Smith | redraft #134 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.