Craig Mager
CB, Texas St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #83 (SDG)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #201 (#18 at his position); he went #83, 118 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 24 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2018 (~38%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 69% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 24 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Defense | 29 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 130" |
| 3-cone | 6.83 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #201 overall (#18 CB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 80 | Alex Carter | redraft #220 |
| 81 | John Miller | redraft #56 |
| 82 | Lorenzo Mauldin | redraft #153 |
| 84 | Jordan Hicks | redraft #21 |
| 85 | Tyler Kroft | redraft #117 |
| 86 | David Johnson | redraft #34 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.