Tyler Kroft
TE, Rutgers · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #85 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #76 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#85).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Rutgers: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 246 lbs: faster than 42% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~147 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2023 (~68%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 100 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Receiving | 105 rec, 1,081 yds, 13 TD |
| Defense | 12 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 246 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #76 overall (#3 TE) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 82 | Lorenzo Mauldin | redraft #153 |
| 83 | Craig Mager | redraft #155 |
| 84 | Jordan Hicks | redraft #21 |
| 86 | David Johnson | redraft #34 |
| 87 | Sammie Coates | redraft #151 |
| 88 | Danielle Hunter | redraft #2 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.