Alex Carter
CB, Stanford · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #80 (DET)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 2 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2018 (~3%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #101 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#80).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 196 lbs: faster than 38% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 2 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 196 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 40" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.05 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Age at draft | 20 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #101 overall (#14 CB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 77 | Duke Johnson | redraft #62 |
| 78 | P.J. Williams | redraft #82 |
| 79 | Eli Harold | redraft #109 |
| 81 | John Miller | redraft #56 |
| 82 | Lorenzo Mauldin | redraft #153 |
| 83 | Craig Mager | redraft #155 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.