Duke Johnson
RB, Miami (FL) · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #77 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #65 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#77). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 207 lbs: faster than 48% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 97 of ~130 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2022 (~75%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 97 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 28 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 532 att, 2,265 yds, 11 TD |
| Receiving | 311 rec, 2,870 yds, 12 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 207 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #65 overall (#5 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 74 | Owamagbe Odighizuwa | redraft #186 |
| 75 | Garrett Grayson | redraft #230 |
| 76 | Chris Conley | redraft #68 |
| 78 | P.J. Williams | redraft #82 |
| 79 | Eli Harold | redraft #109 |
| 80 | Alex Carter | redraft #220 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.