Corey Coleman
WR, Baylor · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #15 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 27 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2018 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #20 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Baylor: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 194 lbs: faster than 69% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 27 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.0 |
| Rushing | 3 att, 15 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 61 rec, 789 yds, 5 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 194 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #20 overall (#3 WR) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 12 | Sheldon Rankins | redraft #37 |
| 13 | Laremy Tunsil | redraft #19 |
| 14 | Karl Joseph | redraft #97 |
| 16 | Taylor Decker | redraft #21 |
| 17 | Keanu Neal | redraft #75 |
| 18 | Ryan Kelly | redraft #23 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.