Taylor Decker
T, Ohio St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #16 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 140 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~85%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #16 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.23 40-yard dash at 310 lbs: faster than 45% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 140 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 59 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 59.0 |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 15 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 310 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.23 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 7.7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.76 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.88" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #16 overall (#4 T) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 13 | Laremy Tunsil | redraft #19 |
| 14 | Karl Joseph | redraft #97 |
| 15 | Corey Coleman | redraft #148 |
| 17 | Keanu Neal | redraft #75 |
| 18 | Ryan Kelly | redraft #23 |
| 19 | Shaq Lawson | redraft #78 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.