Sheldon Rankins
DT, Louisville · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #12 (NOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #12 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.03 40-yard dash at 299 lbs: faster than 30% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 132 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~80%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 139 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 41 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 43.2 |
| Defense | 179 tackles, 35.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 299 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.03 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.44 s |
| Shuttle | 4.59 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #12 overall (#1 DT) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 9 | Leonard Floyd | redraft #15 |
| 10 | Eli Apple | redraft #67 |
| 11 | Vernon Hargreaves III | redraft #93 |
| 13 | Laremy Tunsil | redraft #19 |
| 14 | Karl Joseph | redraft #97 |
| 15 | Corey Coleman | redraft #148 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.