Chris Johnson
RB, East Carolina · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #24 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #41 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#24). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
East Carolina: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.24 40-yard dash at 197 lbs: faster than 100% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 130 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2017 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 130 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 70 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 2163 att, 9,651 yds, 55 TD |
| Receiving | 307 rec, 2,255 yds, 9 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 197 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.24 s |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 130" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #41 overall (#5 RB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 21 | Sam Baker | redraft #41 |
| 22 | Felix Jones | redraft #60 |
| 23 | Rashard Mendenhall | redraft #51 |
| 25 | Mike Jenkins | redraft #61 |
| 26 | Duane Brown | redraft #4 |
| 27 | Antoine Cason | redraft #62 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.