Duane Brown
T, Virginia Tech · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #26 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 220 of ~259 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2023 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #58 (#7 at his position); he went #26, 32 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.07 40-yard dash at 315 lbs: faster than 80% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 220 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 15 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 91 |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 315 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.07 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 7.58 s |
| Shuttle | 4.52 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #58 overall (#7 T) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 23 | Rashard Mendenhall | redraft #51 |
| 24 | Chris Johnson | redraft #9 |
| 25 | Mike Jenkins | redraft #61 |
| 27 | Antoine Cason | redraft #62 |
| 28 | Lawrence Jackson | redraft #98 |
| 29 | Kentwan Balmer | redraft #137 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.