Sam Baker
T, USC · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #21 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #49 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.50 40-yard dash at 309 lbs: faster than 4% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 70 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2013 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 70 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 32 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 309 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.50 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #49 overall (#6 T) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 18 | Joe Flacco | redraft #3 |
| 19 | Jeff Otah | redraft #101 |
| 20 | Aqib Talib | redraft #10 |
| 22 | Felix Jones | redraft #60 |
| 23 | Rashard Mendenhall | redraft #51 |
| 24 | Chris Johnson | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.