Brian Burns
DE, Florida St. · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #16 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 114 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~97%). Plus 3 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 249 lbs: faster than 97% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 117 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 53 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 53.9 |
| Defense | 236 tackles, 71 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 249 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.25" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#2 DE) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 13 | Christian Wilkins | redraft #40 |
| 14 | Chris Lindstrom | redraft #15 |
| 15 | Dwayne Haskins | redraft #163 |
| 17 | Dexter Lawrence | redraft #9 |
| 18 | Garrett Bradbury | redraft #25 |
| 19 | Jeffery Simmons | redraft #3 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.