Jeffery Simmons
DT, Mississippi St. · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #19 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #16 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#19). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 98 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 105 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 62 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 64.8 |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 3 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 237 tackles, 46.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 305 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 34.5" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #16 overall (#4 DT) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 16 | Brian Burns | redraft #12 |
| 17 | Dexter Lawrence | redraft #9 |
| 18 | Garrett Bradbury | redraft #25 |
| 20 | Noah Fant | redraft #60 |
| 21 | Darnell Savage Jr. | redraft #69 |
| 22 | Andre Dillard | redraft #111 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.